The heavily Democratic parts of the country tend to be clustered in New England and along the West Coast. So in that I do disagree with those who think Swing State analysis should be based on the industry standard rather than the most accurate in the industry. The proposed SVI, comparing numbers within one election, doesnt solve this problem either. These results are automatically generated from Google. I know this community is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. In short, as electoral realities have changed, the Cook PVI must change with them. I guess I dont see the value of seeing how much more republican or more demcoratic a district is than a national average. [1] [2] We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? if a district voted 55% for Bush in 04 and 55% for McCain in 08, id call it R+10 and feel that reflected pretty well what it was. Obama MAY be able to improve for 2012 if he does really well, but this may be a once in a half-generation sorta thing. Then everyone will see which system proves the more accurate. 7, 2022, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, Slate, Feb. 25, 2022, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, Slate, Jan. 4, 2022, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America, N.Y. Times, Jan. 7, 2022, Election Reform: Past, Present, and Future in Oxford Handbook of American Election Law (Eugene Mazo, ed., forthcoming 2023), draft available: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, 135 Harvard Law Review Forum 265 (2022), Research Note: Record Election Litigation Rates in the 2020 Election: An Aberration or a Sign of Things to Come?, Election Law Journal, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050 (2022), Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, 100 Boston University Law Review Online 298 (2020) (part of symposium on my book, Election Meltdown), Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them,Election Law Journal (2020), The Democracy Index: Why Our Election System Is Failing and How to Fix Itby Heather K. Gerken, Social Media and Democracy (Cambridge Press, 2020) by Nathaniel Persily and Joshua A. Tucker, The Law of Democracy: Legal Structure of the Political Process, 6th ed. 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Political statistical exponent. Available here, with maps for each congressional district and state. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index - Google News. Following each election and round of redistricting, presidential results are compiled to generate PVI scores for each congressional district. Expect to see President Trump and his Democratic opponents spending lots of time in these states between now and November 2020. The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. [4] The most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th (R+33), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt. An X +00 indicates an evenly balanced district. A district or state that "performed within half a point of the national average in either direction" is designated as "Even". Districts that are in line with the national average receive a score of EVEN. These average districts include Floridas 7th district, Californias 10th district, and Oregons 4th district. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. The eight races that the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina's rapidly changing landscape. Let the fun begin! The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the CPI compares the political leanings of voters in each state House and Senate district with the partisan voting tendencies of the state as a whole. [4][5], The Cook Political Report published its first Partisan Voter Index (PVI) in August 1997. The least Democratic-leaning state to have two Democratic senators is Georgia (R+3 PVI), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. Maybe there is a good reason we are not seeing? Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. Cook Partisan Voting Index - List of PVIs - By State | Technology Trends Cook Partisan Voting Index - List of PVIs - By State By State The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. But maybe I have completely the wrong end of the stick. Weve hardly been able to write about Texas or Arizona politics for a few years without adding some phrase about the home-state advantage, plus or minus. If we can approximate this data via some other measure, that would be quite useful. Professor of Law at USC Gould School of LawView posts , Cheap Speech: How Disinformation Poisons Our Politics--and How to Cure It (Yale University Press, 2022) Think of all the different districts that clock in at (old PVI of) R+3. and Academic Affairs and Read More Map I like the last three off-years and last-two presidentials, overall and by cycle type. but again what does nate think about this? by Daniel P. Tokaji, Free & Fair with Franita and Foley Hardly a day hardly a post goes by here at the Swing State Project without a reference to the Cook Political Reports Partisan Vote Index, or PVI for short. What we need is a way to estimate a sort of generic D vs. R matchup for each district (or state, or state senate/house district, or county, or town, or even precinct). The presidential, gubernatorial, and senate results, however, are perhaps the easiest to sort out of all these data sets. Large portions of the U.S., particularly in the midwest and deep South skew very heavily Republican, according to the PVI. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. But people are going to consider an R+7 district to be solidly Republican, even thought it barely went to Obama. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. (2) The rest of the political world will be using PVIs, which could make it harder for SSP analysis to translate to outside readers 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively. The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. The data is useful but kind of screwy. The following errors occurred with your submission. 61, Anita S. Krishnakumar, Cracking the Whole Code Rule (February 19, 2020). Using both allows a comparison of short and medium term trends for a district at a glance. I realize the point is to compare the district to the national average, but Im not sure how useful that information is when predicting whos going to win in a district. In a few states, these results are aggregated by district by state and/or local election authorities. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. Cooks PVI is merely a relative value even using the old data. Oklahoma has five congressional districts ranging from R+10 to R+27. But it could be even better. Another method is to compare to results up and down the ballot. What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024. A district with a 2004 Cook PVI of D+1 or D+2 district is actually a Republican district, since Bush won by just over 2% nationally. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. i guess i can see the appeal for cook and maybe others in that the 00 and 04 national elections were close to 50-50, therefore you almost removed a complex variable and you can just say if they voted 60% for GOP in 00 and 04 then they are GOP +20. The PVI value indicates a district with a partisan base above the national value for that partys 2004 presidential nominee. But at the Presidential level, the candidates personalities and characteristics like race in 08 can swing a lot of votes. Campaign and Election News Covering Key Races Around the Country. The letter (either a D for Democratic or an R for Republican) reflects the major party toward which the district (or state) leans. [6], The Cook Political Report relies on presidential vote data to produce the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) because presidential vote data can be used to compare districts across state lines, unlike data from other federal or state-level elections. These are the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning. The Cook Political Reports Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. More useful is how a partys candidate performs compared to party registration (where applicable). Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc. The PVI is determined by comparing each congressional district's presidential vote to the national presidential election results. "[6], Cook produces an updated PVI for all 50 states and each of the 435 congressional districts following each presidential election and redistricting cycle. Read more about this topic: Cook Partisan Voting Index, List of PVIs, Mine was, as it were, the connecting link between wild and cultivated fields; as some states are civilized, and others half-civilized, and others savage or barbarous, so my field was, though not in a bad sense, a half-cultivated field. KISS. 48 Florida State University Law Review 61 (2021), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. Below is our 2022 Cook Partisan Voter Index (Cook PVI) score for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The new Cook numbers would mean that the divide between likely Republican and likely Democratic at the House level would come at somewhere around R+5 or R+6. Using only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick. (I guess I randomly grabbed that number because Ive been thinking about NY-20.) i think whatever the methodology, it should include 08 numbers and drop out 00 numbers, otherwise its increasingly out of date. Perhaps lower-profile statewide offices may be useful. But on the other hand, Im getting kind of tired of PVI, as its just one dimension out of many in describing a district, and one we shouldnt fetishize more than we should. That said, if you have any contact details for Charlie Cook or one of his confederates, Id be interested to hear a defence of his method. All Rights Reserved. 9, 2022, How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, Slate, Mar. In 2018 Kendra Horn became the first Democrat to win an election in the states 5th district, which scores R+10, in 40 years. Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean. As we head into next years election, lets take a look at what we are likely to see based on how partisan the states really are. 128.255.79.33 Presidential votes will be way off sometimes because of home-state advantage or other special circumstances. Of course, nothing is completely cut and dry. By State [ change | change source] Two states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are completely nonpartisan. 1793 (2020), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, The Sweep of the Electoral Power (October 20, 2020). Prior to its April 2009 update, the PVI formula was calculated by comparing district-level results for the past two presidential elections to nationwide results for only the most recent election. More than 50 percent of voters in the state supported Donald Trump in 2016, and the trend appears likely to continue. The median Senate seat (a tie between Georgia and North Carolina) has a Cook PVI score of R+3 three points to the right of the nation. Then we can figure out how well our candidate did, versus their candidate. 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